Global Cold Wave May Be Looming — This Time, the Science Is Good
La Nina, a solar minimum, and a massive volcanic eruption make a threesome of cold weather events not seen for two hundred years.
by Art Horn, Pajamas Media, May 31, 2010 [here]
In a cosmically ironic twist of fate and timing, nature may be set to empirically freeze any and all anthropogenic global warming talk: a blast of Arctic cold may encase the earth in an icy grip not seen for 200 years.
This is not alarmist fantasy or 2012 babble — several natural forces that are known to cause cooling are awakening simultaneously, raising speculation of a “perfect storm” of downward pressures on global temperature. These forces let loose one at a time can cause the Earth to cool and can bring about harsh winter conditions. If they all break free at once, the effects could be felt not just in the coming winter, but year-round, and for several years to come.
On March 20, a volcano erupted on the island of Iceland. … This volcano has only erupted three times since the 9th century, the last eruption occurring in the early 1820s. In the past, it has been followed by a much larger eruption by the nearby Katla volcano. Katla has erupted many times on its own, usually every 60 to 80 years, and last blew in 1918. It’s overdue. …
If Eyjafjallajokull induces an eruption of Katla, that event alone could force global temperatures down for 3 to 5 years. But there is much more at work here.
We have just exited the longest and deepest solar minimum in nearly 100 years. During this minimum, the Sun had the greatest number of spotless days (days where there were no sunspots on the face of the sun) since the early 1800s. The solar cycle is usually about 11 years from minimum to minimum — this past cycle 23 lasted 12.7 years. The long length of a solar cycle has been shown to have significant short term climate significance. Australian solar researcher Dr. David Archibald has shown that for every one year increase in the solar cycle length, there is a half-degree Celsius drop in the global temperature in the next cycle.
Using that relationship, we could expect a global temperature drop of one degree Fahrenheit by 2020. That alone would wipe out all of the warming of the last 150 years.
And there is yet a third player in this potential global temperature plunge.
Since autumn of 2009, we have been under the influence of a moderately strong El Nino. … The current El Nino is predicted to fade out this summer, and frequently after an El Nino we see the development of La Nina, the colder sister of El Nino. La Nina’s cooler waters along the equatorial Pacific act to cool the Earth’s temperature.
The stage could soon be set for a confluence of cold-inducing forces. A La Nina, a weaker sun, and a possible major eruption in Iceland could plunge the Earth into a period of bitter cold not seen for two hundred years. … [more]