5 Feb 2008, 2:53am
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China and India Cold and Snow Blitz, Canada and United States Next?

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

Roger Pielke Sr. aptly notes Climate Science has made as one of its main conclusions that the needed focus for the study of climate change and variability is on the regional and local scales. Global and zonally-averaged climate metrics would only be important to the extent that they provide useful information on these space scales. The recent prolonged rare cold and snow in China provides an excellent example to support this conclusion. As reported on China View under the title Experts blame snow disaster on La Nina, atmospheric circulation.

See the extent of the cold across much of China and India the 8 days ending February 2, 2008. Note amounts exceed 8 degrees Celsius (nearly 15 degrees F) in many locations. Over 38% of the world’s population (2.4 billion) live in China and India.

Cold is again building in western Canada and will come east and south the next few weeks. Look for more snow and cold in the news in the weeks ahead across many areas of the northern United States. This too is classic La Nina, cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation weather… [more]

5 Feb 2008, 2:51am
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Carbon Dioxide in Not the Primary Cause of Global Warming: The Future Cannot Cause the Past

Paper by Allan M.R. MacRae, Calgary Alberta Canada

Despite continuing increases in atmospheric CO2, no significant global warming occurred in the last decade, as confirmed by both Surface Temperature and satellite measurements in the Lower Troposphere. Contrary to IPCC fears of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, Earth may now be entering another natural cooling trend. Earth Surface Temperature warmed approximately 0.7 degrees Celsius from ~1910 to ~1945, cooled ~0.4 C from ~1945 to ~1975, warmed ~0.6 C from ~1975 to 1997, and has not warmed significantly from 1997 to 2007.

CO2 emissions due to human activity rose gradually from the onset of the Industrial Revolution, reaching ~1 billion tonnes per year (expressed as carbon) by 1945, and then accelerated to ~9 billion tonnes per year by 2007. Since ~1945 when CO2 emissions accelerated, Earth experienced ~22 years of warming, and ~40 years of either cooling or absence of warming.

The IPCC’s position that increased CO2 is the primary cause of global warming is not supported by the temperature data. In fact, strong evidence exists that disproves the IPCC’s scientific position. This paper and Excel spreadsheet show that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lag (occur after) variations in Earth’s Surface Temperature by ~9 months. The IPCC states that increasing atmospheric CO2 is the primary cause of global warming - in effect, the IPCC states that the future is causing the past. The IPCC’s core scientific conclusion is illogical and false… [more]

29 Jan 2008, 1:45pm
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Phony Polar Bear Photos Spur Algore, Greenies

How the Environmental Extremists Manipulate the Masses

by Carole “CJ” Williams, January 26, 2008, NewsWithViews.com

Last March, global warming fanatic Al Gore used a picture of two polar bears purportedly stranded on melting ice off the coast of Alaska as a visual aide to support his claim that man-made global warming is doing great harm to Mother Earth. The one he chose, but didn’t offer to pay for right away, turned out to be a photo of a polar bear and her cub out doing what healthy, happy polar bears do on a wave-eroded chunk of ice not all that far from shore in the Beaufort Sea north of Barstow, Alaska.

The picture, wrongly credited to Dan Crosbie, an ice observer specialist for the Canadian Ice Service, was actually taken by Amanda Byrd while she was on a university-related research cruise in August of 2004, a time of year when the fringe of the Arctic ice cap normally melts. Byrd, a marine biology grad student at the time, was gathering zooplankton for a multi-year study of the Arctic Ocean.

Crosbie, who was also on the trip, pilfered the polar bear photo from a shared computer onboard the Canadian icebreaker where Ms. Byrd downloaded her snapshots; he saved it in his personal file. Several months later, Crosbie, who is known as an avid photographer, gave the photo to the Canadian Ice Service, which then allowed Environment Canada to use it as an illustration for an online magazine.

Today that photo, with credit given to photographer Dan Crosbie and the Canadian Ice Service, can be found all over the Internet, generally with the caption “Two polar bears are stranded on a chunk of melting ice”.

It’s a hoax, folks. The bears, which can swim distances of 100 miles and more, weren’t stranded; they were merely taking a break and watching the boat go by when a lady snapped their picture … [more]

28 Jan 2008, 1:21pm
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EU Persists With Biofuels (Despite Skyrocketing 3rd World Food Prices)

BRUSSELS, Jan 23 (IPS) - The European Union has decided to maintain a target for increasing the use of biofuels despite mounting concerns that its strategy could worsen global hunger.In a far-reaching action plan for combating climate change published Jan. 23, the European Commission, the EU executive, announced that it was sticking to a previously agreed goal that biofuels should provide 10 percent of the energy needed to power cars and other modes of transport by 2020.

This was despite a barrage of recent criticism of this goal, including by some figures within the Commission. Louis Michel, the European commissioner for development aid, said earlier this month that there is a genuine risk that traditional agriculture in poor countries will be damaged if arable land is used for growing crops destined to meet energy needs in wealthier parts of the world.

Also, a study by scientists working for the Commission has concluded that “the uncertainty is too great to say whether the EU 10 percent biofuel target will save greenhouse gases or not.”…

Last week Indonesia witnessed street protests because soya bean prices climbed to record levels as a result of U.S. farmers realising that biofuels can be more lucrative than soya.

“The EU has set a very ambitious target and has no idea how to meet it,” Woollcombe told IPS. “If it can’t reach this target in a sustainable way, it should go back to the drawing board.”

A South American campaigner complained that the Commission is not taking into account how peasants have been displaced from their land in some poor countries to make way for plantations of palm oil, the main biofuel used in Europe.

“The sustainability criteria proposed by the European Commission exclude vital factors such as large-scale water extraction, soil erosion, land conflicts, human rights and the labour conditions of workers,” said Stella Semino from Grupo de Reflexión Rural in Argentina. “Moreover, they can’t deal with macro-level impacts such as displacement and increased food prices.” … [more]

28 Jan 2008, 1:06pm
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Physicist questions climate change finding

NEW ORLEANS–A York University professor has ignited a controversy by challenging a supposed prime example of man-made climate change – that jet condensation trails, know as contrails, act like clouds, cooling the Earth during the day and keeping it warmer at night.

Physicist William van Wijngaarden says he found no evidence to support this climate effect in Canadian temperature records for the contrail-free days immediately after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

That contrasts with a 2002 study by U.S. researchers that concluded the temperature spread between day and night over the lower 48 states increased by 1.5C over long-term averages between Sept. 11 and 14 in 2001, when commercial air flights were mostly grounded over North America.

Those results initially reinforced theories that thin jet contrails may spread out over large areas for days, becoming invisible from the ground but still blocking infrared radiation, or heat…

The York researcher said he decided to double-check the U.S. findings because the claimed temperature rise was so large, almost equal to the global average temperature increase from greenhouse warming.

“If it was that big, then I ought to have been able to see it in Canada,” he said.

But when he examined the spread between day and night temperatures from 112 weather stations across Canada for Sept. 8 to 17 in 2001, there wasn’t a spike during the no-fly period.

In Canada, commercial flights were grounded entirely for 48 hours after the terrorist attacks and were about a third of normal levels for the next 24 hours.

Yet the diurnal temperature range for September 2001 across Canada fell well within the long-term average from 1977 to 2005.

The absence of any contrail effect held true even for the 34 weather stations in Canada below the 50-degree latitude, where jet flights are normally most intense… [more]

22 Jan 2008, 5:08pm
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No Consensus on Global warming

By John Coleman, KUSI-TV Meteorologist, San Diego

If you tell a lie often enough, everyone will believe it. That’s an old saving. But I fear that its essentially true. And, it is the heart of the problem I face opposing the Global Warming frenzy.

Thousands of news reports on radio and television and in newspapers and posted on the internet have included the phrase “there is a consensus among the 2,500 scientists that make up the UN’s IPCC on Global Warming that Global Warming is unequivocal.” Al Gore says the debate is over. And pollsters tell us that about 80% of Americans accept that man made Global Warming is a significant problem.

Well, that’s my challenge. How do I combat all that media hype and generally accepted view? This brief is my attempt to do just that.

I know that man-made global warming is not happening. I know that the research behind the Global Warming scare is flawed. I know that warming has ceased and cooling may have begun in 1999 (that’s almost ten years). And, I know THERE IS NO CONSENSUS… [more]

22 Jan 2008, 5:06pm
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Bitter cold

(CNN) — Bitter cold gripped most of the United States on Monday, with temperatures dipping below normal from coast to coast.

Temperatures in the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains were about 30 degrees below normal, CNN meteorologist Bonnie Schneider said.

“It’s very hard to find any part of the country that’s warm,” Schneider said… [more]

19 Jan 2008, 4:31pm
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PNW Research Station Scientists Receive in 2007 Nobel Peace Prize

PORTLAND, Ore. December 10, 2007. The October announcement that several PNW Research Station scientists shared in the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, came as a surprise to many employees. Even to the winners.

Ralph Alig, Ron Neilson, and David L. Peterson, co-recipients of the Prize with former Vice-President Al Gore, were recognized for their work on the climate change synthesis report as members of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPCC). The panel was honored for its efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about human-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.

Alig, along with Neilson, contributed to the 1998 Special Report on Regional Impacts. “My contributions centered on the team’s development of a large-scale model to examine opportunities in forestry and agriculture to sequester greenhouse gases,” explains Alig, team leader for Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics. “We continue to enhance the model [and to] examine adaptation and mitigation opportunities.”

“ An e-mail was sent around the office,” recalls Neilson about how he learned of the announcement, “but at first, I didn’t put two and two together. It’s still a bit of a shock. It’s still sinking in.” The Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil-System Model developed by Neilson and his team was part of the report on regional impacts of climate change. The model helps predict vegetation distribution, growth, and disturbance dynamics under current and future climatic conditions.

Peterson says he heard the announcement about the Nobel Prize while driving in the Colorado Rockies after attending a climate change meeting. Peterson, team leader for Fire and Environmental Research Applications, contributed research findings on understanding the effects of climate on fire and other ecosystem disturbances. “It’s great that the scientific community can work together across disciplines and borders to address the issue of climate change,” says Peterson who is a member of the 1995 Second Assessment Report, Working Group II. “It seems appropriate; shows what the international scientific community can do when focused on a critical issue that affects everyone on the planet.”… [more]

Decision on Listing Polar Bear Postponed

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — Federal officials said Monday that they will need a few more weeks to decide whether polar bears need protection under the Endangered Species Act because of global warming.

The deadline was Wednesday, but the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service said it now hopes to provide a recommendation to Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne in time for a decision by him within the next month.

The department has never declared a species threatened or endangered because of climate change, Hall said.

“That’s why this one has been so taxing and challenging to us,” he said.

Environmental groups that petitioned to protect polar bears, arguing that warming threatened their habitat, said they would go court to ensure a timely decision.

“We certainly hope that the polar bear will be listed within the next month,” said Kassie Siegel, an attorney for the Center for Biological Diversity… [more]

7 Jan 2008, 12:21am
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A Nation of Dim Bulbs

The nasty little surprise hidden in the new energy bill.
by Andrew Ferguson
The Weekly Standard 12/31/2007, Volume 013, Issue 16 [here]

On December 19, President Bush signed an energy bill that will, among many, many other things, force you to buy a new kind of light bulb. He did this because environmental enthusiasts don’t like the light bulbs you’re using now. He and they reason, therefore, that you shouldn’t be allowed to have them. So now you can’t.

Ordinary consumers may be surprised, once they understand what’s happened. They probably haven’t known that the traditional incandescent light bulb, that happy little globe shining so innocently from the lamp in the corner, has been a scourge of environmentalists for many years. With their stern and unrelenting moralism, the warriors of Greenpeace have even branded lightbulb manufacturers “climate criminals” for making incandescents, which are, they say, a “silent killer.” …

American environmental groups have long called for an outright national ban on the old-fashioned bulbs. But  then they came to the realization, as a spokesman for the Natural Resources Defense Council told the New York Times this spring, that such a ban might “anger consumers.” “We’ve given up a sound bite, ‘ban the incandescent,’” the spokesman said.

Instead the groups joined with the Bush administration this year in advocating a steady increase in federally mandated efficiency standards for light bulbs. The effect of the tightened standards is to make it illegal to manufacture or sell the inefficient incandescent bulb by 2014. So it’s not a ban, see. It’s just higher standards. Which have the same effect as a ban-a slow-motion ban that’s not really a ban. Not surprisingly, in long, self-congratulatory remarks at the bill signing last week, Bush neglected to mention that he and Congress have just done away with the incandescent light bulb. Maybe most of us won’t notice until he’s back in Crawford…
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3 Jan 2008, 6:31pm
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A cold spell soon to replace global warming

MOSCOW. (Oleg Sorokhtin for RIA Novosti) – Stock up on fur coats and felt boots! This is my paradoxical advice to the warm world.

Earth is now at the peak of one of its passing warm spells. It started in the 17th century when there was no industrial influence on the climate to speak of and no such thing as the hothouse effect. The current warming is evidently a natural process and utterly independent of hothouse gases.

The real reasons for climate changes are uneven solar radiation, terrestrial precession (that is, axis gyration), instability of oceanic currents, regular salinity fluctuations of the Arctic Ocean surface waters, etc. There is another, principal reason—solar activity and luminosity. The greater they are the warmer is our climate.

Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The latest data, obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.

This is my point, which environmentalists hotly dispute as they cling to the hothouse theory. As we know, hothouse gases, in particular, nitrogen peroxide, warm up the atmosphere by keeping heat close to the ground. Advanced in the late 19th century by Svante A. Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist and Nobel Prize winner, this theory is taken for granted to this day and has not undergone any serious check… [more]

14 Dec 2007, 11:05pm
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Study Increases Concerns of Climate Model Reliability

Newswise — A new study comparing the composite output of 22 leading global climate models with actual climate data finds that the models do an unsatisfactory job of mimicking climate change in key portions of the atmosphere.

This research, published on-line Wednesday in the Royal Meteorological Society’s International Journal of Climatology*, raises new concerns about the reliability of models used to forecast global warming.

“The usual discussion is whether the climate model forecasts of Earth’s climate 100 years or so into the future are realistic,” said the lead author, Dr. David H. Douglass from the University of Rochester. “Here we have something more fundamental: Can the models accurately explain the climate from the recent past?

“It seems that the answer is no.”… [more]

14 Dec 2007, 8:47pm
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We should give up futile attempts to combat climate change

Open Letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Dec. 13, 2007

His Excellency Ban Ki-Moon, Secretary-General, United Nations, New York, N.Y.

Dear Mr. Secretary-General,

Re: UN climate conference taking the World in entirely the wrong direction

It is not possible to stop climate change, a natural phenomenon that has affected humanity through the ages. Geological, archaeological, oral and written histories all attest to the dramatic challenges posed to past societies from unanticipated changes in temperature, precipitation, winds and other climatic variables. We therefore need to equip nations to become resilient to the full range of these natural phenomena by promoting economic growth and wealth generation.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued increasingly alarming conclusions about the climatic influences of human-produced carbon dioxide (CO2), a non-polluting gas that is essential to plant photosynthesis. While we understand the evidence that has led them to view CO2 emissions as harmful, the IPCC’s conclusions are quite inadequate as justification for implementing policies that will markedly diminish future prosperity. In particular, it is not established that it is possible to significantly alter global climate through cuts in human greenhouse gas emissions. On top of which, because attempts to cut emissions will slow development, the current UN approach of CO2 reduction is likely to increase human suffering from future climate change rather than to decrease it… [more]

11 Dec 2007, 11:53pm
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Antarctica: Warming, Cooling, or Both?

The ice caps are melting – right? If you visit thousands of websites on climate change, watch Gore’s film or many similar documentaries, you would be left with no doubt that the icecaps are warming and melting at an unprecedented rate. However, with respect to Antarctica, you might be surprised when you examine what the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says in their 2007 Summary for Policymakers. Believe it or not, IPCC reports “Antarctic sea ice extent continues to show inter-annual variability and localized changes but no statistically significant average trends, consistent with the lack of warming reflected in atmospheric temperatures averaged across the region.” Furthermore, they note “Current global model studies project that the Antarctic ice sheet will remain too cold for widespread surface melting and is expected to gain in mass due to increased snowfall.”

A major article on this subject appears in a recent issue of the Journal of Climate by William Chapman and John Walsh of the University of Illinois. The two scientists extensively review the literature on temperature trends in Antarctica and conclude “These studies are essentially unanimous in their finding that the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed since the 1950s, when many of the surface stations were established.” They note “Recent summaries of station data show that, aside from the Antarctic Peninsula and the McMurdo area, one is hard-pressed to argue that warming has occurred, even at the Antarctic coastal stations away from the peninsula and McMurdo.” Furthermore, they write “Recent attempts to broaden the spatial coverage of temperature estimates have shown a similar lack of evidence of spatially widespread warming.” Like it or not, over the past four decades, and during the time of the greatest build-up of greenhouse gases, Antarctica has been cooling! … [more]

Antarctica’s penguins threatened by global warming

NUSA DUA, Indonesia (Reuters) - Antarctica’s penguin population has slumped because of global warming as melting ice has destroyed nesting sites and reduced their sources of food, a WWF report said on Tuesday.

The Antarctic peninsula is warming five times faster than the average in the rest of the world, affecting four penguin species — the emperor penguin, the largest and the grandest in the world, the gentoo, chinstrap and adelie, it said.

“The Antarctic penguins already have a long march behind them,” Anna Reynolds, deputy director of WWF’s Global Climate Change Programme, said in a statement at the Bali climate talks.

“Now it seems these icons of the Antarctic will have to face an extremely tough battle to adapt to the unprecedented rate of climate change.”… [more]

 
  
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