More Signs Of The Sun Slowing Down
by Anthony Watts, Watt’s Up With That, June 15, 2008
In my post from yesterday, I highlighted a paragraph from a NASA press release which touched on one of the final findings of the soon to be ended Ulysses spacecraft mission to study the sun:
“Ulysses ends its career after revealing that the magnetic field emanating from the sun’s poles is much weaker than previously observed. This could mean the upcoming solar maximum period will be less intense than in recent history.”
A few months ago, I had plotted the Average Geomagnetic Planetary Index (Ap) which is a measure of the solar magnetic field strength but also daily index determined from running averages of eight Ap index values. Call it a common yardstick (or meterstick) for solar magnetic activity.
… [T]he Ap Index has continued along at the low level (slightly above zero) that was established during the drop in October 2005. As of June 2008, we now have 32 months of the Ap hovering around a value just slightly above zero, with occasional blips of noise. … [more]
ANWR Not the Frosty Paradise It’s Cracked Up To Be
By Jonah Goldberg, Townhall, 06/13/08
Sen. John McCain said this week he would not drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for the same reason he “would not drill in the Grand Canyon … I believe this area should be kept pristine.”
Pristine means unspoiled, virginal, in an original state.
One wonders how pristine the Grand Canyon can be if it has roughly 5 million visitors every year, rafting, hiking, picnicking and riding mules up one side and down the other. Campfires, RVs and motels that do not conjure the word “virginal” ring around large swaths of it.
This isn’t to say that the Grand Canyon isn’t a beautiful place; it inspires awe among those who visit it. ANWR (pronounced “AN-wahr) inspires awe almost entirely in those who haven’t been there. It is an environmental Brigadoon or Shangri-La, a fabled land almost no one will ever see. That is its appeal. People like the idea that there are still Edens “out there” even if they will never, ever see them.
Indeed, if Americans could visit the north coast of Alaska, as I have, as easily as they can visit the Grand Canyon, the oil would be flowing by now.
ANWR is roughly the size of South Carolina, and it is spectacular. However, the area where, according to Department of Interior estimates, some 5.7 billion to 16 billion barrels of recoverable oil reside is much smaller and not necessarily as awe-inspiring. It would amount to the size of Dulles airport.
Question for McCain: Has South Carolina been ruined because it has an airport?
Most of the images of the proposed drilling area that people see on the evening news are misleading precisely because they tend to show the glorious parts of ANWR, even though that’s not where the drilling would take place. Even when they position their cameras in the right location, producers tend to point them in the wrong direction. They point them south, toward the Brooks mountain range, rather than north, across the coastal plain where the drilling would be.
In summer, the coastal plain is mostly mosquito-plagued tundra and bogs. (The leathernecks at Prudhoe Bay joke that “life begins at 40″ - because at 40 degrees, clouds of mosquitoes and other pests take flight from the ocean of puddles). In the winter, it reaches 70 degrees below zero (not counting wind chill, which brings it to 120 below) and is in round-the-clock darkness. … [more]
Flooded ethanol industry threatens US mandates
By Timothy Gardner, uk.reuters.com, Jun 13, 2008
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Floods in the Midwest that have pushed corn prices to record levels have wiped out profits for making U.S. ethanol and threaten to sink production of the fuel below government mandates.
“If it’s simply economically impossible to make ethanol. then (the government) may have to amend or suspend the Renewable Fuel Standard,” analyst Pavel Molchanov at Raymond James and Associates in Houston said by telephone.
The floods ravaging the corn crop across at least eight states, including Iowa and Illinois, at a time of growing global demand have put another roadblock before the U.S. biofuels policy. Hoping to wean the country off foreign oil, the Bush administration has boosted incentives and mandates for alternative fuels made from food crops. Many have blamed those steps for lifting food prices at a time of mounting hunger problems.
Corn prices for the new-crop July 2009 corn hit a record near $8 per bushel on Friday, while old-crop also hit a record above $7.
Molchanov estimated that average U.S. producers now lose 8 cents for every gallon of ethanol distilled, compared with a profit margin of 20 cents a gallon two weeks ago. Besides higher corn prices, margins also have been squeezed by two-year highs for natural gas, which fires most ethanol plants.
As much as 2 billion to 5 billion gallons of ethanol “could go offline in the next few months due to high corn prices,” a Citi Investment Research note said. U.S. ethanol production capacity is about 8.8 billion gallons per year from 154 distilleries.
“If the ethanol is not there, I don’t think the government expects blenders to blend as much,” said Ron Oster, an analyst at BroadPoint Capital in St. Louis. … [more]
Did thick brush, environmental concerns worsen Martin Fire?
By PAUL ROGERS - Santa Cruz Sentinel, 06/12/2008 [here]
State officials attempted to clear brush two years ago on the piece of land a where a fire now raging in Santa Cruz County began, but much of the work was delayed and ultimately not finished because of opposition from two local environmental groups.
The fire began in an area of sandstone outcroppings known as “Moon Rocks” on the 550-acre Bonny Doon Ecological Reserve, commanders for Cal Fire confirmed. The reserve, an ancient seabed famed for its rare plants and trees, has not had a significant fire since 1948. As a result, dead trees and brush were piled high.
“It’s like the whole reserve was full of gasoline,” said Angela Petersen, vegetation management program coordinator for the forestry department’s San Mateo-Santa Cruz region.
The Moon Rocks area is well-known among locals as a hangout for teenagers, college students and star-gazers. Neighbors have complained for years about loud parties, illegal bonfires and litter.
In 2003, Petersen worked with biologists from the California Department of Fish and Game, which owns the reserve, to draw up a plan to thin the reserve using chain saws and controlled burns. They won an $80,000 federal grant to fund the work.
For three years, however, the Bonny Doon community was split. Some local residents welcomed the work. Others slowed the effort, Petersen said, by requesting numerous studies and monitoring.
“They said we didn’t have enough information to know how our activities were going to affect the listed and sensitive plants,” Petersen said. “They said by doing anything we could open up the area to invasive species.”
Two environmental groups, the California Native Plant Society’s Santa Cruz chapter and the Sandhills Alliance for Natural Diversity, raised the most objections.
more »
Coldest June in History
by Susan Gilmore, Seattle Times
Think it’s cold? You have good reason.
Seattle just experienced the coldest first week of June, according to climate records dating to 1891, said Cliff Mass, University of Washington metrologist. Both 1999 and 2008 share the record, with 1917 falling in second place, he said. “Just wait until tomorrow,” he said, when temperatures are going to be even colder.
A heavy snow warning has been issued for the Washington Cascades and Olympics as a storm from the Gulf of Alaska plows into the state tonight.
Forecasters with the National Weather Service said up to a foot of snow may fall in the mountains as low as 3,000 feet, which means Snoqualmie Pass may get a dusting. …
While it won’t snow in the Puget Sound area, records for the lowest high temperature may be broken today and Tuesday. Forecasters said the high temperature today should be 57 degrees, 1 degree below the record set last year. On Tuesday, under windy and rainy skies, the temperature should only get to 54 degrees, 2 degrees below the record set in 1972. … [more]
Planetary Bio-Production Increases Due to CO2
by Lawrence Solomon, Financial Post, June 07, 2008
Planet Earth is on a roll! GPP is way up. NPP is way up. To the surprise of those who have been bearish on the planet, the data shows global production has been steadily climbing to record levels, ones not seen since these measurements began.
GPP is Gross Primary Production, a measure of the daily output of the global biosphere — the amount of new plant matter on land. NPP is Net Primary Production, an annual tally of the globe’s production. Biomass is booming. The planet is the greenest it’s been in decades, perhaps in centuries.
Until the 1980s, ecologists had no way to systematically track growth in plant matter in every corner of the Earth — the best they could do was analyze small plots of one-tenth of a hectare or less. The notion of continuously tracking global production to discover the true state of the globe’s biota was not even considered.
Then, in the 1980s, ecologists realized that satellites could track production, and enlisted NASA to collect the data. For the first time, ecologists did not need to rely on rough estimates or anecdotal evidence of the health of the ecology: They could objectively measure the land’s output and soon did — on a daily basis and down to the last kilometre.
The results surprised Steven Running of the University of Montana and Ramakrishna Nemani of NASA, scientists involved in analyzing the NASA data. They found that over a period of almost two decades, the Earth as a whole became more bountiful by a whopping 6.2%. About 25% of the Earth’s vegetated landmass — almost 110 million square kilometres — enjoyed significant increases and only 7% showed significant declines. When the satellite data zooms in, it finds that each square metre of land, on average, now produces almost 500 grams of greenery per year.
Why the increase? Their 2004 study, and other more recent ones, point to the warming of the planet and the presence of CO2, a gas indispensable to plant life. CO2 is nature’s fertilizer, bathing the biota with its life-giving nutrients. Plants take the carbon from CO2 to bulk themselves up — carbon is the building block of life — and release the oxygen, which along with the plants, then sustain animal life. As summarized in a report last month, released along with a petition signed by 32,000 U. S. scientists who vouched for the benefits of CO2: “Higher CO2 enables plants to grow faster and larger and to live in drier climates. Plants provide food for animals, which are thereby also enhanced. The extent and diversity of plant and animal life have both increased substantially during the past half-century.” … [more]
Gov suggests State of Montana take over management of some federal forests
AP MISSOULA [here] - Gov. Brian Schweitzer says that creating healthier forests, possibly by having the state take over management of some federal timberland, is the best way to combat the infestation of bark beetles in the West.
In a speech, Schweitzer suggested that instead of spending $50 million to $200 million annually to fight wildfires, the state should budget $75 million each year for treating its forests before they’re burned or killed by beetles. The governor made the comments at the University of Montana during a conference to discuss the beetle infestation.
“We propose the federal government manage like we do after a fire n complete timber sales in six to eight months after a fire,” he said. “When we have dead or dying trees, we harvest them, but our neighbor doesn’t do a dang thing, in their checkerboard fashion.”
Schweitzer said leaders could propose a plan to manage 10 percent of federal timberland.
Montanans have been trying to discourage mountain pine beetles, Douglas fir beetles, and western spruce budworms from overwhelming trees. Across the western United States, mountain pine beetles destroyed more than 2.9 million acres of forest in 2005. In Montana alone, the most recent numbers from 2006 show that 2.4 million trees across 750,000 acres were killed by the beetles.
Ken Gibson, an entomologist with the Forest Service in Missoula, said thinning forests and replacing them with various tree species, sizes and ages can reduce the chance of a beetle attack.
Beach bonfires to be banned in Seattle
They fuel global warming, parks department says
By KERY MURAKAMI, Seattle PI
Even with the skies overcast and threatening rain, Khang Nguyen, 18, and Joel Juan, 19, kicked back after school at Alki Beach.
“It’s just a relaxing way to hang out with friends,” Nguyen said of the bonfire crackling in front of them one evening earlier this week.
But Seattle Parks and Recreation might do what even this week’s chilly weather couldn’t — douse the long tradition of beach bonfires at Alki and at Golden Gardens.
Park department staff is recommending reducing bonfires at the two beaches this summer and possibly banning them altogether next year.
The park board will hear the recommendation Thursday, and the city plans to run public-service announcements and hand out brochures later this month about the effects of bonfires on global warming.
According to a memo to the park board from the staff released Thursday, “The overall policy question for the Board is whether it is good policy for Seattle Parks to continue public beach fires when the carbon … emissions produced by thousands of beach fires per year contributes to global warming.” … [more]
U.S. Has 36th Coolest Spring on Record
posted by Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, ICECAP [here]
The March-May spring season was the 36th coolest on record for the contiguous United States, according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Separately, last month ended as the 34th coolest May for the contiguous United States, based on records dating back to 1895.
The average spring temperature of 51.4 degrees F was 0.5 degree F below the 20th century average. The average May temperature of 60.3 degrees F was 0.7 degree F below the 20th century mean, based on preliminary data.
For the spring, Missouri had its fourth wettest, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. For May, Arizona, Maryland, and Nebraska were much wetter than average, with Nebraska ranking fourth wettest and Maryland fifth wettest on record. California had its driest spring on record, while Nevada and Utah had their 10th and 11th driest on record. … [more]
$45 trillion needed to combat warming
TOKYO - The world needs to invest $45 trillion in energy in coming decades, build some 1,400 nuclear power plants and vastly expand wind power in order to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, according to an energy study released Friday.
The report by the Paris-based International Energy Agency envisions a “energy revolution” that would greatly reduce the world’s dependence on fossil fuels while maintaining steady economic growth.
“Meeting this target of 50 percent cut in emissions represents a formidable challenge, and we would require immediate policy action and technological transition on an unprecedented scale,” IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said.
A U.N.-network of scientists concluded last year that emissions have to be cut by at least half by 2050 to avoid an increase in world temperatures of between 3.6 and 4.2 degrees above pre-18th century levels. … [more]
Wolves kill 15 sheep near Dillon
By the Billings Gazette News Services [here]
BOZEMAN - State wildlife officials say wolves have killed 15 domestic buck sheep and injured 14 others on private land in the East Fork of the Blacktail, south of Dillon.
Officials say the Freezeout Pack probably killed two ewes as well.
The Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks says wolves killed six sheep on the same property in early May. Because of the history of depredations, the agency last week authorized USDA Wildlife Services to kill three of the pack’s five adult wolves.
In an unrelated incident, a pair of wolves has killed a calf on private land in the Greenhorn Mountains, south of Alder.
Officials believe the pair, called the Jack Creek Pack, injured two other calves on the same property in early May.
FWP said it will monitor the pack but take no additional action at this time.
Tahoe woman sentenced today for cutting 3 Forest Service trees
By SCOTT SONNER, Nevada Appeal, June 4 2008
RENO — The lawyer for a woman who admits hiring a company to illegally chop down trees on national forest land at Lake Tahoe is urging a judge to spare her prison time partly because she’s been embarrassed and humiliated by the publicity.
Patricia Vincent, 57, Incline Village, was scheduled to be sentenced in U.S. District Court in Reno Wednesday afternoon under a plea agreement with federal prosecutors that orders her to pay $100,000 restitution and do 80 hours of community service, said Scott Freeman, her Reno lawyer.
Vincent, who has no previous criminal history, had the three trees removed last April to improve her view of the lake. She has “suffered emotionally from the negative publicity and has no further plans to stay in the Lake Tahoe area,” Freeman said in court documents filed on Monday.
Vincent was indicted in January by a federal grand jury in Reno on felony charges of theft of government property and willingly damaging government property. She faced up to 10 years in prison and a $250,000 fine for each of those original counts if convicted.
But in exchange for her guilty plea last month, Assistant U.S. Attorney Ron Rachow agreed to drop the felony charges and charge her with one misdemeanor count of unlawfully cutting trees on U.S. land.
That crime carries a maximum sentence of one year in prison, a $100,00 fine and possible restitution. But Rachow said under the plea agreement, she would face a year of probation, 80 hours of community service and pay $100,000 in restitution — with $35,000 going to the U.S. Forest Service and $65,000 going to the National Forest Foundation.
Freeman acknowledged in court documents the sentencing was “unusual” because “the defendant is not a typical criminal violator.” He said she already has completed 87.5 hours of community service and already paid the $100,000 restitution. … [more]
Global Temperature Dives (Again) in May
by Anthony Watts, Watts Up With That?, June 4, 2008 [here]
Confirming what many of us have already noted from the anecdotal evidence coming in of a much cooler than normal May, such as late spring snows as far south as Arizona, extended skiing in Colorado, and delays in snow cover melting in many parts of the northern hemisphere, the University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH) published their satellite derived Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit data set of the Lower Troposphere for May 2008.
It is significantly colder globally, colder even than the significant drop to -0.046°C seen in January 2008.
The global temperature change from April to May 2008 was -.195°C
UAH
2008 Jan -0.046
2008 Feb 0.020
2008 Mar 0.094
2008 Apr 0.015
2008 May -0.180
Compared to the May 2007 value of 0.199°C we find a 12 month delta-T (global temperature change) is -.379°C.
But even more impressive is the change since the last big peak in global temperature in January 2007 at 0.594°C, giving a 16 month delta-T of -0.774°C which is equal in magnitude to the generally agreed upon “global warming signal” of the last 100 years. … [more]
Our spotless sun
By Lawrence Solomon, Financial Post, May 31, 2008
Solar image of June 1, 2008 courtesy Solar and Heliospheric Observatory [here]. Note the continuing absence of sunspots, giving rise to speculation that another Little Ice Age looms.
You probably haven’t heard much of Solar Cycle 24, the current cycle that our sun has [not yet - ed.] entered, and I hope you don’t. If Solar Cycle 24 becomes a household term, your lifestyle could be taking a dramatic turn for the worse. That of your children and their children could fare worse still, say some scientists, because Solar Cycle 24 could mark a time of profound long-term change in the climate. As put by geophysicist Philip Chapman, a former NASA astronaut-scientist and former president of the National Space Society, “It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age.”
The sun, of late, is remarkably free of eruptions: It has lost its spots. By this point in the solar cycle, sunspots would ordinarily have been present in goodly numbers. Today’s spotlessness — what alarms Dr. Chapman and others — may be an anomaly of some kind, and the sun may soon revert to form. But if it doesn’t – and with each passing day, the speculation in the scientific community grows that it will not – we could be entering a new epoch that few would welcome.
Sunspots have been well documented throughout human history, starting in the fourth century BC, with written descriptions by Gan De, a Chinese astronomer. In 1128, an English monk, John of Worcester, was the first person known to have drawn sunspots, and after the telescope’s arrival in the early 1600s, observations and drawings became commonplace, including by such luminaries as Galileo Galilei. Then, to the astonishment of astronomers, they saw the sunspots diminish and die out altogether.
This was the case during the Little Ice Age, a period starting in the 15th or 16th century and lasting centuries, says NASA’s Goddard Space Centre, which links the absence of sunspots to the cold that then descended on Earth. During the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, a time known as the Maunder Minimum (named after English astronomer Edward Maunder), astronomers saw only about 50 sunspots over a 30-year period, less than one half of 1% of the sunspots that would normally have been expected. Other Minimums — times of low sunspot activity — also corresponded to times of unusual cold. … [more]
Note: Solar Cycle 24 is now one year overdue (based on average solar cycle length of 11 years). See Ultralong Solar Cycle 23 and Possible Consequences by Joe D’Aleo [here]